Online Social Casino Odds

Online gambling is a competitive business and many casinos will offer a lot to get and keep your business. Many will offer sign-up bonuses to new customers, adding 10 to 50% of their initial deposit to their bankroll (see below for more on this subject).

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Introduction

The following table shows the house edge of most casino games. For games partially of skill perfect play is assumed. See below the table for a definition of the house edge.

Casino Game House Edge

GameBet/RulesHouse EdgeStandard
Deviation
BaccaratBanker1.06%0.93
Player1.24%0.95
Tie14.36%2.64
Big Six$111.11%0.99
$216.67%1.34
$522.22%2.02
$1018.52%2.88
$2022.22%3.97
Joker/Logo24.07%5.35
Bonus SixNo insurance10.42%5.79
With insurance23.83%6.51
BlackjackaLiberal Vegas rules0.28%1.15
Caribbean Stud Poker5.22%2.24
Casino WarGo to war on ties2.88%1.05
Surrender on ties3.70%0.94
Bet on tie18.65%8.32
Catch a Wave0.50%d
CrapsPass/Come1.41%1.00
Don't pass/don't come1.36%0.99
Odds — 4 or 100.00%1.41
Odds — 5 or 90.00%1.22
Odds — 6 or 80.00%1.10
Field (2:1 on 12)5.56%1.08
Field (3:1 on 12)2.78%1.14
Any craps11.11%2.51
Big 6,89.09%1.00
Hard 4,1011.11%2.51
Hard 6,89.09%2.87
Place 6,81.52%1.08
Place 5,94.00%1.18
Place 4,106.67%1.32
Place (to lose) 4,103.03%0.69
2, 12, & all hard hops13.89%5.09
3, 11, & all easy hops11.11%3.66
Any seven16.67%1.86
Double Down Stud2.67%2.97
Heads Up Hold 'EmBlind pay table #1 (500-50-10-8-5)2.36%4.56
Keno25%-29%1.30-46.04
Let it Ride3.51%5.17
Pai Gowc1.50%0.75
Pai Gow Pokerc1.46%0.75
Pick ’em Poker0% - 10%3.87
Red DogSix decks2.80%1.60
RouletteSingle Zero2.70%e
Double Zero5.26%e
Sic-Bo2.78%-33.33%e
Slot Machines2%-15%f8.74g
Spanish 21Dealer hits soft 170.76%d
Dealer stands on soft 170.40%d
Super Fun 210.94%d
Three Card PokerPairplus7.28%2.85
Ante & play3.37%1.64
Video PokerJacks or Better (Full Pay)0.46%4.42
Wild Hold ’em Fold ’em6.86%d

Notes

aLiberal Vegas Strip rules: Dealer stands on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may double after splitting, resplit aces, late surrender.
bLas Vegas single deck rules are dealer hits on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may not double after splitting, one card to split aces, no surrender.
cAssuming player plays the house way, playing one on one against dealer, and half of bets made are as banker.
dYet to be determined.
eStandard deviation depends on bet made.
fSlot machine range is based on available returns from a major manufacturer
gSlot machine standard deviation based on just one machine. While this can vary, the standard deviation on slot machines are very high.

House Edge

The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet. The house edge is not the ratio of money lost to total money wagered. In some games the beginning wager is not necessarily the ending wager. For example in blackjack, let it ride, and Caribbean stud poker, the player may increase their bet when the odds favor doing so. In these cases the additional money wagered is not figured into the denominator for the purpose of determining the house edge, thus increasing the measure of risk.

The reason that the house edge is relative to the original wager, not the average wager, is that it makes it easier for the player to estimate how much they will lose. For example if a player knows the house edge in blackjack is 0.6% he can assume that for every $10 wager original wager he makes he will lose 6 cents on the average. Most players are not going to know how much their average wager will be in games like blackjack relative to the original wager, thus any statistic based on the average wager would be difficult to apply to real life questions.

The conventional definition can be helpful for players determine how much it will cost them to play, given the information they already know. However the statistic is very biased as a measure of risk. In Caribbean stud poker, for example, the house edge is 5.22%, which is close to that of double zero roulette at 5.26%. However the ratio of average money lost to average money wagered in Caribbean stud is only 2.56%. The player only looking at the house edge may be indifferent between roulette and Caribbean stud poker, based only the house edge. If one wants to compare one game against another I believe it is better to look at the ratio of money lost to money wagered, which would show Caribbean stud poker to be a much better gamble than roulette.

Many other sources do not count ties in the house edge calculation, especially for the Don’t Pass bet in craps and the banker and player bets in baccarat. The rationale is that if a bet isn’t resolved then it should be ignored. I personally opt to include ties although I respect the other definition.

Element of Risk

For purposes of comparing one game to another I would like to propose a different measurement of risk, which I call the 'element of risk.' This measurement is defined as the average loss divided by total money bet. For bets in which the initial bet is always the final bet there would be no difference between this statistic and the house edge. Bets in which there is a difference are listed below.

Element of Risk

GameBetHouse EdgeElement
of Risk
BlackjackAtlantic City rules0.43%0.38%
Bonus 6No insurance10.42%5.41%
Bonus 6With insurance23.83%6.42%
Caribbean Stud Poker5.22%2.56%
Casino WarGo to war on ties2.88%2.68%
Heads Up Hold 'EmPay Table #1 (500-50-10-8-5)2.36%0.64%
Double Down Stud2.67%2.13%
Let it Ride3.51%2.85%
Spanish 21Dealer hits soft 170.76%0.65%
Spanish 21Dealer stands on soft 170.40%0.30%
Three Card PokerAnte & play3.37%2.01%
Wild Hold ’em Fold ’em6.86%3.23%

Standard Deviation

The standard deviation is a measure of how volatile your bankroll will be playing a given game. This statistic is commonly used to calculate the probability that the end result of a session of a defined number of bets will be within certain bounds.

The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet (see table) and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size. The probability that the session outcome will be within one standard deviation is 68.26%. The probability that the session outcome will be within two standard deviations is 95.46%. The probability that the session outcome will be within three standard deviations is 99.74%. The following table shows the probability that a session outcome will come within various numbers of standard deviations.

I realize that this explanation may not make much sense to someone who is not well versed in the basics of statistics. If this is the case I would recommend enriching yourself with a good introductory statistics book.

Standard Deviation

NumberProbability
0.250.1974
0.500.3830
0.750.5468
1.000.6826
1.250.7888
1.500.8664
1.750.9198
2.000.9546
2.250.9756
2.500.9876
2.750.9940
3.000.9974
3.250.9988
3.500.9996
3.750.9998

Hold

Although I do not mention hold percentages on my site the term is worth defining because it comes up a lot. The hold percentage is the ratio of chips the casino keeps to the total chips sold. This is generally measured over an entire shift. For example if blackjack table x takes in $1000 in the drop box and of the $1000 in chips sold the table keeps $300 of them (players walked away with the other $700) then the game's hold is 30%. If every player loses their entire purchase of chips then the hold will be 100%. It is possible for the hold to exceed 100% if players carry to the table chips purchased at another table. A mathematician alone can not determine the hold because it depends on how long the player will sit at the table and the same money circulates back and forth. There is a lot of confusion between the house edge and hold, especially among casino personnel.

Hands per Hour, House Edge for Comp Purposes

The following table shows the average hands per hour and the house edge for comp purposes various games. The house edge figures are higher than those above, because the above figures assume optimal strategy, and those below reflect player errors and average type of bet made. This table was given to me anonymously by an executive with a major Strip casino and is used for rating players.

Hands per Hour and Average House Edge

GamesHands/HourHouse Edge
Baccarat721.2%
Blackjack700.75%
Big Six1015.53%
Craps481.58%
Car. Stud501.46%
Let It Ride522.4%
Mini-Baccarat721.2%
Midi-Baccarat721.2%
Pai Gow301.65%
Pai Pow Poker341.96%
Roulette385.26%
Single 0 Roulette352.59%
Casino War652.87%
Spanish 21752.2%
Sic Bo458%
3 Way Action702.2%

Translation

A Spanish translation of this page is available at www.eldropbox.com.

Casino Odds By State

Online Social Casino Odds
Written by: Michael Shackleford

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Introduction

If you have never gambled online you are probably bewildered by how to get started. Online gambling is still a relatively young industry and as such there are still many less than reputable casinos. The good and the bad are still fiercely elbowing each other for market share. So choose where to play carefully. I have some tips below which may help you.

You are probably also wondering if the games are fixed. At one point I said emphatically not. On average the casinos keep about 75% of money deposited so they shouldn't need to cheat. However I have heard complaint after complaint of extremely bad luck from playing at some non-licensed casinos that use no-name web software. I do believe that the vast majority of online casinos play fair but am suspicious of a small minority. As you hop from one web site to another of the online casinos it may seem arbitrary about choosing one to play at. Let me help by saying that quality counts. Take a close look at their web site or the free games. If they seem like a professional organization chances are better that they are. Finally trust your gut. If you get a bad feeling about a place then resist playing there, even if you can't explain to yourself the exact reason.

The Basics of Playing

There are two ways you can go in terms of actually gambling online, web-based instant play platforms and downloadable software. Web based platforms offer almost immediate playing and a nearly identical experience to the downloadable software. In the past downloadable software was the best, but now I prefer to play through instant play platforms. Playing at an online casino begins with you registering an account on the website of the spot you want to play at. This is sometimes done on the casino web site and sometimes through the software. Then you must put some into your account. The vast majority of the time this is done with a credit (or debit) card. Other options include Western Union, Bitcoin, and bank wires, although some sites carry substantial fees for using these services. Beware that some credit cards will treat deposits to an online casino as a cash advance. If this happens then you may have success in arguing the charge but many credit cards have a flat policy that a purchase of casino chips counts as a cash advance. I recommend using debit cards instead, as there is never a cash advance fee and the transactions are posted faster.

Once you have money in your account you may then begin to play. Be sure to check the rules first, many online casinos favor European rules which can be different than U.S. rules. This can be good or bad depending on the particular rule. As you play I would suggest documenting everything you do. Personally I use graph paper to keep a running track of my bankroll and the total amount bet.

If you plan to return in the near future do not cash out, just leave your money in your account. When you do cash out the chips will be converted to cash and credited back to your credit card, up to the amount of the initial purchase. If you have a net win then the winnings will have to be sent another way, usually by check. Most places will send winnings for free but others will subtract a finance charge.

The Pros and Cons of Online Casino Gambling

There can be no debate that online gambling is a lot different than gambling in a physical casino. In some ways it is better and in some ways it is worse. Below are my pros and cons of online gambling, based on my personal experiences, compared to gambling in a 'real' casino.

The Pros

  1. Online gambling is a competitive business and many casinos will offer a lot to get and keep your business. Many will offer sign-up bonuses to new customers, adding 10 to 50% of their initial deposit to their bankroll (see below for more on this subject). Some will randomly deposit money in customer accounts and others will give away vacations for specified levels of total money bet.
  2. The rules are usually better than in physical casinos.
  3. You don't have to travel long distances. The casino is in your own home.
  4. You don't have to suffer real casino annoyances, like smokers.
  5. You don't have to feel obligated to tip.

The Cons

  1. You have to be patient about getting your money after you cash out. In addition to waiting periods on the casino end there are also delays on the credit card end. Things are generally faster than in years past, but American players can still expect to wait up to 5 business days to see withdrawals processed and paid out.
  2. Customer service can be spotty depending on where you play. Some places offer great service via live chat, e-mail and a toll-free number. Others take several days to reply to an e-mail, have no known telephone number, and generally seem like they just don't want to be bothered aside from taking your money.
  3. If a player uses a site that doesn't have a legitimate gaming license, they have no power in the event of a dispute. This has gotten better over the past five or so years, but there are still sites that operate without a license will take advantage of you if given the chance.
  4. If you play at a lot of places your credit/debit card statement will be a nightmare to balance. Transactions seldom indicate the name of the casino you played at but instead specify the merchant bank.

What is Expected of the Player

One of the biggest problems facing the online gambling business is abuse by players. At the annual industry meeting in Montreal there was just as much, if not more, discussion about this issue than the future legality of online gambling. This is a very legitimate concern because there are a lot of people seeking to defraud the industry.

Although online gambling is a very competitive business when it comes to player abuse the industry feels so strongly that the online casinos help to protect each other. Specifically negative databases, or blacklists, of players suspected of fraud or abuse are shared among the online casinos. The typical reasons for being blacklisted are:

  1. Disputing charges
  2. Threatening to dispute charges
  3. Using someone else's credit card
  4. Manipulation of gaming software
  5. Opening more than one account per household or computer

Of these disputing and threatening to dispute charges are the biggest problem the industry faces. The industry term for this is a charge back. This will get a player blacklisted very quickly. Multiple accounts per household or computer I believe is only frowned on if multiple bonuses are given to the same household or same e-mail address. In addition Julie Sidwell says that at least two negative databases track bonus abusers, or player who only play during bonus promotions.

Once the player is on the blacklist they will likely be unwelcome at every casino that the list is shared with. It is like a bad credit rating or a police record, it follows you wherever you go. Placement on a blacklist is not always justified and once on it there is no authority to appeal to for removal.

Doing business in the unregulated world of the Internet is risky for both player and casino. For this reason there seems to be an unwritten code of honor expected of players. Players do not have the liberty of parsing the rules in a legalistic manner and doing whatever they please that is not listed as prohibited behavior. In the absence of a higher authority to regulate the business, players are held accountable to an implied good faith contract. Remaining above reproach and avoiding any appearance of questionable behavior is important for longevity as a player.

Playing for Bonuses

To attract your business many casinos will add a bonus to your initial deposit, usually 10% but I have seen it go as high as 100%. When you accept a bonus you are usually required to meet a certain level of betting action to cash out the bonus. I have seen the total amount bet required range from three times the deposit (Pinnacle Sportsbook) to 40 times the sum of the deposit plus the bonus (Connecto Casino). Read the rules carefully before you start playing. After opening an account wait at least 15 minutes for any welcome e-mail to come in. Sometimes this e-mail will indicate different rules than what the web site says about earning a bonus. Assume that you have to meet the more stringent of the conditions. Regardless of what the rules are you should more than exceed them. If pressed for specifics I would say play at least 50% more than required but 100% or more is better. Some online casinos claim, and exercise, the right to deny bonuses to customers they feel are in it only for the bonus, as opposed to the enjoyment of the casino. Finally I would be suspicious of casinos that you have never opened an account with who send unsolicited bonus offers.

I have created an automatically updating list of the best bonuses in terms of wagering requirements and other terms for each of the popular casino games.

What are the best online gambling sites?

There are thousands of online casinos to choose from, and to the beginner it may seem confusing telling them apart. Use our 'Recommended' section as a guide on the top rated and trusted brands. Please also consider these important factors:

  1. Is there a sign-up bonus? If so how much?
  2. How are the rules? This can vary a lot in games like blackjack and video poker.
  3. Are there transaction fees? If so how much?
  4. Is there a phone number you can call? Is it toll free? If you call, is the line busy?
  5. Is the casino licensed?
  6. Is there information available about who owns and operates the casino?
  7. Who provides the software? Is it a reliable name, or some mystery no-name company?

Do not expect any casino to score an A+ in all these categories. Consider the total package and use your best judgement. A good place to start is to visit read my reviews of casinos with the Wizards Seal.

Is it Illegal to Gamble Online?

On October 13th, 2006 the Unlawful Internet Gambling and Enforcement Act was signed into law by George W. Bush as an unrelated add-on to the SAFE Port Act of 2006, and we have followed what has changed since then. Since then many Internet casinos have closed the accounts of American players, as well as Neteller, the main payment processor for U.S. players.

In December 2011 the US Department of Justice issued a legal opinion that the Wire Act of 1961 online applied to sportsbetting, opening the door for legalized online gambling in the United States. Since then, the states of New Jersey, Nevada, and Delaware have legalized online betting in some form, and more states are set to come on board in the future. There has been no movement of federal legalization of the activity, so right now it remains in a legal grey area, although not illegal.

We are keeping an eye on each state in the US regarding the legality of online gambling here.

I Think I'm Being Cheated

Since 1997, the Wizard and his team have been trying to keep the gaming business clean of cheating, both online and in land casinos. Our blacklist lists some of the online operators we've exposed dealing an unfair game. While most accusations we get of foul play look more like bad luck to us, we still are open to looking at credible evidence. If you feel you're the victim of an unfair game, please fill out our complaint form and we'll evaluate your claim.

External Links

A good source for following news regarding Internet gambling in the U.S. is at CasinoListings.com .


Written by: Michael Shackleford